Over the past decade, the synthetic drug fentanyl has devastated the United States, killing more than a quarter of a million Americans and becoming, according to some officials, the deadliest drug in U.S. history. And over the past two months, even amid signs that the fentanyl crisis is beginning to abate, the drug has suddenly assumed a prominent place in American national security and economic policy.
The initial justification for the tariffs on Canada and Mexico — as well as the tariffs on China that are already in place — was because, in the words of the White House, those countries had failed to «stem the flow of poisonous fentanyl and other drugs into our country». President Donald Trump agreed to delay imposing tariffs on Mexico and Canada after they pledged to take action to address the crisis, but they are set to take effect again this week.
The administration is also reportedly preparing an executive order labeling fentanyl a «weapon of mass destruction» which could open the door to military action against drug cartels in Mexico. Trump has repeatedly talked about the possibility of using military force on Mexican soil during his campaign and has already listed several cartels as «foreign terrorist organizations». In recent congressional testimony, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard called fentanyl a major threat to U.S. national security.
Regardless of whether threats of tariffs and military action can actually stop the importation of fentanyl into the U.S., Trump is right about one thing: fentanyl is a global problem, and it takes a complex global underground economy, including laboratories in China and cartels in Mexico, to get these deadly chemicals onto U.S. streets. He made the fentanyl epidemic a major theme of his campaign, and, at least anecdotally, his tough message seemed to resonate with families and communities affected by the drug.
But now that Trump has been in office for months, critics say his policies are unlikely to help keep Americans from dying from fentanyl, and in some cases may be counterproductive, and that fentanyl is being used as a cover to justify the safety of Trump's trade and immigration policies.
A brief explanation of the fentanyl crisis
Fentanyl is a potent synthetic opioid, meaning it is created in a lab from precursor chemicals rather than derived from a plant like traditional opium. It comes in a variety of chemical variants. It was originally created by Belgian chemists in 1959 as an alternative to morphine, the dominant painkiller at the time. Fentanyl acts faster, it is more potent and less likely to cause nausea. It quickly gained popularity as an anesthetic for surgical procedures and is still widely used for legitimate medical purposes.
Fentanyl is also highly addictive, and its recreational use was placed under international control in the mid-1960s. Fentanyl first appeared as a street drug in California in the late 1970s, where dealers misled them by referring to the purer form of heroin as «Chinese white».
But the illegal use of fentanyl in the United States did not begin until decades later, in the wake of the opioid crisis of the 1990s, when doctors began prescribing larger and larger quantities of newly available opioids, such as OxyContin, for pain management. Many people first addicted to prescription painkillers later turned to illegal drugs like heroin, which Mexican cartels began importing into the U.S. in much larger quantities in the late 2000s.
Then, around 2012, fentanyl, a much more potent drug than heroin, began entering the United States. At first, it arrived to dealers by mail from chemical plants in China. Mexican cartels, sensing a business opportunity, quickly became involved in the fentanyl trade themselves.
The number of overdose deaths rose rapidly. By 2016, it had become the deadliest drug in the United States. Just a few milligrams of fentanyl can be fatal, and the fact that dealers often mix it with other drugs like heroin is partly what makes it so deadly: Users often don't know how much fentanyl they're taking, or that they're taking it at all.
The opioid epidemic, exacerbated by the Covida pandemic and fentanyl overdose deaths, peaked in 2022 with more than 73,000 deaths. Since then, the number of overdose deaths has declined, which experts attribute to a number of factors: the waning impact of the pandemic, increased awareness of the dangers of fentanyl, the increased availability of test strips that can detect the presence of fentanyl in a dose of another drug, and naloxone, an overdose reversal drug now carried by first responders at all times and available over-the-counter. However, this decline is relative. Overdoses of synthetic opioids — mainly fentanyl — are the leading cause of death for Americans between the ages of 18 and 45.
What is China's fault?
China is home to the world's largest chemical industry, accounting for nearly half of the world's production, much of it completely legal. In the shadow of this industry are the facilities that create the ingredients for much of the U.S. fentanyl. Fentanyl comes in a huge number of varieties, and while many of them are tightly controlled in China, chemists can easily make their product technically legal with only minor molecular changes and still be one step ahead of regulators. At the beginning of the fentanyl crisis, Chinese manufacturers mailed finished fentanyl either directly to the United States or to Mexican cartels that facilitated its distribution.
In 2019, after years of diplomatic pressure from the Obama and Trump administrations, the Chinese government agreed to declare all varieties of fentanyl a controlled substance. Chinese manufacturers and trafficking networks then simply switched to producing and selling the «precursor chemicals» used to make fentanyl.
With these chemicals, the final drug is relatively easy for an amateur chemist to make. The problem from a law enforcement perspective is that many of these chemicals have a «dual use»: they are used in industry or medicine, so they are more difficult to control. China is not characterized by a soft approach to drugs. It is one of the few countries in the world that executes drug traffickers and dealers — including four Canadian citizens just last month — and opposes measures at the United Nations calling for a shift to less punitive drug policies.
The initial justification for the tariffs on Canada and Mexico — as well as the tariffs on China that are already in place — was because, in the words of the White House, those countries had failed to «stem the flow of poisonous fentanyl and other drugs into our country». President Donald Trump agreed to delay imposing tariffs on Mexico and Canada after they pledged to take action to address the crisis, but they are set to take effect again this week.
The administration is also reportedly preparing an executive order labeling fentanyl a «weapon of mass destruction» which could open the door to military action against drug cartels in Mexico. Trump has repeatedly talked about the possibility of using military force on Mexican soil during his campaign and has already listed several cartels as «foreign terrorist organizations». In recent congressional testimony, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard called fentanyl a major threat to U.S. national security.
Regardless of whether threats of tariffs and military action can actually stop the importation of fentanyl into the U.S., Trump is right about one thing: fentanyl is a global problem, and it takes a complex global underground economy, including laboratories in China and cartels in Mexico, to get these deadly chemicals onto U.S. streets. He made the fentanyl epidemic a major theme of his campaign, and, at least anecdotally, his tough message seemed to resonate with families and communities affected by the drug.
But now that Trump has been in office for months, critics say his policies are unlikely to help keep Americans from dying from fentanyl, and in some cases may be counterproductive, and that fentanyl is being used as a cover to justify the safety of Trump's trade and immigration policies.
A brief explanation of the fentanyl crisis
Fentanyl is a potent synthetic opioid, meaning it is created in a lab from precursor chemicals rather than derived from a plant like traditional opium. It comes in a variety of chemical variants. It was originally created by Belgian chemists in 1959 as an alternative to morphine, the dominant painkiller at the time. Fentanyl acts faster, it is more potent and less likely to cause nausea. It quickly gained popularity as an anesthetic for surgical procedures and is still widely used for legitimate medical purposes.
Fentanyl is also highly addictive, and its recreational use was placed under international control in the mid-1960s. Fentanyl first appeared as a street drug in California in the late 1970s, where dealers misled them by referring to the purer form of heroin as «Chinese white».
But the illegal use of fentanyl in the United States did not begin until decades later, in the wake of the opioid crisis of the 1990s, when doctors began prescribing larger and larger quantities of newly available opioids, such as OxyContin, for pain management. Many people first addicted to prescription painkillers later turned to illegal drugs like heroin, which Mexican cartels began importing into the U.S. in much larger quantities in the late 2000s.
Then, around 2012, fentanyl, a much more potent drug than heroin, began entering the United States. At first, it arrived to dealers by mail from chemical plants in China. Mexican cartels, sensing a business opportunity, quickly became involved in the fentanyl trade themselves.
The number of overdose deaths rose rapidly. By 2016, it had become the deadliest drug in the United States. Just a few milligrams of fentanyl can be fatal, and the fact that dealers often mix it with other drugs like heroin is partly what makes it so deadly: Users often don't know how much fentanyl they're taking, or that they're taking it at all.
The opioid epidemic, exacerbated by the Covida pandemic and fentanyl overdose deaths, peaked in 2022 with more than 73,000 deaths. Since then, the number of overdose deaths has declined, which experts attribute to a number of factors: the waning impact of the pandemic, increased awareness of the dangers of fentanyl, the increased availability of test strips that can detect the presence of fentanyl in a dose of another drug, and naloxone, an overdose reversal drug now carried by first responders at all times and available over-the-counter. However, this decline is relative. Overdoses of synthetic opioids — mainly fentanyl — are the leading cause of death for Americans between the ages of 18 and 45.
What is China's fault?
China is home to the world's largest chemical industry, accounting for nearly half of the world's production, much of it completely legal. In the shadow of this industry are the facilities that create the ingredients for much of the U.S. fentanyl. Fentanyl comes in a huge number of varieties, and while many of them are tightly controlled in China, chemists can easily make their product technically legal with only minor molecular changes and still be one step ahead of regulators. At the beginning of the fentanyl crisis, Chinese manufacturers mailed finished fentanyl either directly to the United States or to Mexican cartels that facilitated its distribution.
In 2019, after years of diplomatic pressure from the Obama and Trump administrations, the Chinese government agreed to declare all varieties of fentanyl a controlled substance. Chinese manufacturers and trafficking networks then simply switched to producing and selling the «precursor chemicals» used to make fentanyl.
With these chemicals, the final drug is relatively easy for an amateur chemist to make. The problem from a law enforcement perspective is that many of these chemicals have a «dual use»: they are used in industry or medicine, so they are more difficult to control. China is not characterized by a soft approach to drugs. It is one of the few countries in the world that executes drug traffickers and dealers — including four Canadian citizens just last month — and opposes measures at the United Nations calling for a shift to less punitive drug policies.
There is some historical irony in the accusation, which the Chinese government vehemently denies, that it is deliberately flooding the West with opiates. In the 19th century, Britain fought a war with China to open up that country's markets after the Qing dynasty, trying to combat a growing drug problem, banned opium imports from British India. The Opium Wars marked the beginning of what is often called the «century of humiliation» which, according to the official version, ended with the rise to power of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). A number of American commentators accuse the CCP of waging a reverse opium war today.
Most experts say it is impossible to prove that China is intentionally exporting fentanyl to the U.S. as a matter of public policy.
Mexican drug cartels
In Mexico, precursors used to manufacture fentanyl are often shipped by ship to the ports of Manzanillo and Lázaro Cárdenas, with a significant proportion of fentanyl domestically manufactured from imported chemicals. However, the bulk of the fentanyl originates in Mexico.
Two major cartels control the distribution of the drug: the Sinaloa Cartel, led by Joaquin «El Chapo» Guzman, and the newer New Generation Jalisco Cartel. These organizations, previously dominant in the supply of heroin and other substances, have seen the benefits in synthetic drugs such as fentanyl. «Their business is not one drug, but money» — notes Professor Cecilia Farfan-Mendez. The production of fentanyl does not require large plantations or complex conditions — simple laboratories in urban settings where chemical reagents are mixed in ordinary kitchen utensils and metal tubs are sufficient. This significantly reduces costs and increases profits.
It is estimated that small trucks can deliver enough fentanyl for millions of doses in a year in the United States. Specialists believe that in the future cartels may completely switch to synthetic drugs, as their production and transportation are much less visible and the profits are huge: one dose costs only a penny and sells for between $5 and $30 per pill.
Cooperation between the U.S. and Mexico to combat fentanyl has been volatile in recent years. Allegations of corruption and political gamesmanship have often hampered joint efforts. In 2020, the U.S. arrested Mexico's former defense minister on allegations of ties to drug cartels.
President Lopez Obrador, who came to power promising «hugs, not bullets» and rejecting the idea of fentanyl production in Mexico, has argued that the crisis is the result of social decay. But experts believe his policies have used diplomatic maneuvers to reduce U.S. pressure on other issues, such as migration. Newly elected President Claudia Sheinbaum, who took office in October, is already showing a tougher stance against the cartels, which could change the current balance in the fight against drugs.
What does this have to do with Canada?
Fentanyl has been a source of tension between the U.S., Mexico and China since the drug became a serious threat during the Obama administration. Canada, threatened by Trump's tariff restrictions, presents a very different situation. The country is experiencing an opioid crisis — the second worst in the world after the U.S. — with more than 49,000 overdose deaths between 2016 and 2024. Recently, there has been an increase in organized crime and money-laundering groups linked to the drug trade.
Canadian authorities have dismantled several large rural fentanyl laboratories in recent years, including one in British Columbia last year where enough fentanyl and chemical precursors were found to produce more than 95.5 million potentially lethal doses — twice the country's population.
At this point, evidence that Canada is the primary source of U.S. fentanyl is very limited. However, the Trump administration is using this perceived threat to justify tough economic policies.
How does the government plan to combat this?
Many experts note that a comprehensive approach that includes supply, demand, and harm reduction is needed to effectively address the fentanyl problem. While the Trump administration is emphasizing predominantly on supply.
Trump also blames illegal immigrants and migrants for moving «drugs, misery and death» across the border. Mendez, of the University of California, San Diego, notes that the connection the administration is making between illegal immigration and drug smuggling is misleading. «The people who are actually bringing in fentanyl are U.S. citizens. That makes sense from a business standpoint: you need people with a legal way to enter the country. You're not going to give that channel to migrants or asylum seekers» — she says.
Given the very small amounts of fentanyl needed to supply drug markets, the task of completely stopping the importation of the substance into the United States seems almost impossible.
Even if the Chinese government were cooperative and could cut off all chemical shipments, there would be the possibility that another source would take over. India, which also has a large chemical industry and similar regulatory problems, is already being considered as potential alternatives. In any case, Vigil noted, «without a reduction in demand, supply cannot be stopped».
As for the Trump administration's first steps, they have raised skepticism. Transactions between chemical manufacturers and fentanyl traffickers often take place on the dark web, and law enforcement and the media have noted the growing role of cryptocurrencies in these transactions. Instead of cracking down on cryptocurrencies, Trump has chosen to actively deregulate them. As one of his first executive decisions, he pardoned Ross Ulbricht, the creator of the notorious Silk Road drug exchange on the dark web.
Felbab-Brown expressed concern that cuts to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's data collections could make it harder to get accurate information on overdoses and deaths, and budget cuts to Medicaid programs would make it harder for those suffering from opioid addiction to access treatment. Trump's Secretary of Health and Human Services, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. who is a known skeptic of drug treatment for addiction, has proposed creating farms or camps to rehabilitate addicts, a method that many experts believe is not effective enough, especially against a powerful drug like fentanyl.
On the positive side, the years-long wave of fentanyl-related deaths appears to be on the decline. However, there are no guarantees that this trend will continue — regardless of who occupies the White House.
The synthetic drug landscape is changing so rapidly that it is difficult for countries and law enforcement agencies to keep pace. Therefore, a revolutionary approach is needed, because trying to merely evolve will not succeed. If the American experience with opioids in the twenty-first century has taught us anything, it is that the crisis can take new, more dangerous forms.